Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: the case of botulinum toxin in milk.

Title
Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: the case of botulinum toxin in milk.

Source
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 102, (28): 9984-9989, 2005.

A mathematical model was developed of a 9-stage cattle-to-consumers supply chain associated with a single milk-processing facility that is the victim of a deliberate release of botulinum toxin. Centralized storage and processing lead to substantial dilution of the toxin, therefore, a min. amount of toxin is required for release to cause damage.

Irreducible uncertainties regarding the dose-response curve prevented quantification of the min. effective release. However, it is thought that if terrorists can obtain enough toxin then rapid distribution and consumption may result in poisoning of several hundred thousand individuals if detection from early symptoms is not timely.

Timely and specific in-process testing has the potential to eliminate the threat of this scenario at a cost of USD 0.01/gallon and is thus recommended. Investigation of improving the toxin inactivation rate of heat pasteurization without sacrificing flavour or nutrition is also proposed.